For most of June I'll be away, so there'll be very few trades
made. There'll be two at the end of the month which I
won't be unable to notify you of.

So, to make use of this bit of space, I'd like to show you
a very good comment regarding volatility...........

Boring markets mean lower volatility, and there is an
excellent gauge of stock market volatility. Today it's saying
you should sell stocks.

The VIX (symbol ^VIX on Yahoo) measures volatility in
the price of US options. "The old saying used to be
'When the VIX is high, it's time to buy'," writes Dr
Sjuggerud. "In the last few years, the opposite message
has worked - 'When the VIX is low, it's time to go'."

Since the Great Bear of 2000-?? began, any dip in the
VIX below 20 has marked a good time to exit the US stock
market - and fast. It happened in late 2000, in mid-2001
and in early 2002. The signal was very accurate; it just
happened to predict sharp and simultaneous drops in
London's FTSE indices, too.

In 2004 so far, the VIX has remained below 20. Using
that as a signal wouldn't have made or lost you much
money though, because it's been a permanently dull
market, as Bill notes above. But the VIX's lowest daily
close since 1996 was 14, and that occurred earlier this
year. So it looks like volatility can only go in one
direction...up.

"At some point," says Dr Sjuggerud, "probably very
soon, volatility will rise - and judging by the VIX's
historical record, that means stocks will fall."

Simply put, starting today, volatility can't fall much
lower. But shares can.

Definitions

Bear Market: The perceived wisdom of a 'bear' market is when
stocks go down 20% or more. A stock or index can go down
and stay at the same level for years. Which is why buying into
a bear market produces no returns for your investment. Bear
markets can last from 8 to 20 years, with interspersions of rallies.

You have to 'bear' in mind that 50 percent of the years in a secular
bear cycle the market goes up! And often by 20 percent or more.
Frequent rallies are typical of bear markets.

Some investors can't bring it upon themselves to sell because that
would mean they were wrong! Not only that, but if they sold after
a large loss and the stocks had a rebound, they would be extremely
depressed. Thus, they refrain from selling because of a combination
of fear that they will be wrong again - so they hold on to their stocks.
NOTE: A hold is the same as a buy.

If you invested in all bear markets, then your return would be,
on average, 0.3%.

Bull Market: A prolonged continued period of rising stocks. And then
there is a period of time when stocks rise no more and trade sideways. What happens then is that investors get fed up with no growth and look for other opportunities. As this continues, at some point the
bull market is over and the decline sets in.

A bull market can last from 8 to 20 years.

If you invested in all bull markets, then your return would be,
on average, 13.2%.