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What is today's best investment?
The answer is simple: Gold!
Most commodities are rising in price, but
Gold is by far the best investment
to get into right now - December 2003.
One of the reasons
for the surge in commodities
is the rise in Chinese production and growth -
which is running at annual rate of 10%.
In 2003, crude oil
and gold soared; so too did nickel (up 70%)...copper (up
35%)...platinum (up 21%)...wheat (up 25%)...soya (up 60% per
bushel)...
Commodities traders haven't seen anything like it since the 1970s.
Back then, the oil crisis started gold on its famous upwards path to
$800/oz.
But today the question is: will it only be a matter of time before
this natural resource resurgence spreads to the likes of
palladium...coal...sugar ...uranium...natural gas...and dozens more
valuable raw materials?
In the latter half of 2007 there will be something like a 'Crash Hell' in the
US. Stocks, Housing and Bonds will tumble like a pack of cards. But
unlike the Tech bubble, which only affected investors, this 'Crash
Hell' will effect ordinary people. The like of which
has
never been seen before. The debt bubble is
just waiting to pop!
This 'Crash Hell' is entirely due to Governments printing money
which is not backed be gold.
The Gold standard was replaced by Nixon in the 1970s. He basically
replaced the Gold Standard
with the 'Dollar Standard.' But the
dollar is just printed paper which can be printed in any amount. You
just turn up the printing press until one day you have so many
dollars in circulation that it becomes almost worthless.
If every dollar must
be backed by a certain amount of gold, then you cannot create money
out of thin air. The gold standard says you must have the gold
first. Governments find it harder to wage war, dole out entitlements
and build public works with a gold standard tying them down. Banks
can't lend as much money; hence they can't make as much money. This
is why the banking interests of this country backed the creation of
the Federal Reserve. They appreciated the value of a good cartel.
When Roosevelt ordered Americans to surrender their gold coins in
the spring of '33, he was not saving capitalism. He was burying it.
Capitalism [or free markets]depends on contracts. Contracts are
nothing but promises. When contracts cannot be enforced, then you
join the world of banana republics and post-Soviet style looting.
The system breaks down. So it was whenever the country reneged on
its promise to back its own currency with gold.
Those who gave their gold in exchange for dollars [backed by a
promise to redeem in gold]were simply left with dollars. Their own
government essentially stole their gold from them. Dollars, I should
note, that have lost a lot of value in the ensuing seventy years.
But there's more than this. Money unfettered by specie is the main
fuel for the unsustainable booms that later turn into the panics,
crashes and
depressions that pock the landscape of financial history. Gold was
what reigned in such excesses. It was the anchor that kept the ship
in the harbor.
Just because the government frequently broke these rules does not
mean the gold standard itself is at fault. (The rules were broken
with finality in 1972, when President Nixon quashed the last vestige
of the gold standard). A man who cannot keep his promises cannot
reasonably lay the blame on the
promises. Such a routine breaker of promises may be a rogue, a
thief, and a scallywag. Usually, the preferred term is "liar." Today
we call such
people politicians and "saviours of capitalism."
When gold started to rise in the 1970s the UK government sold off
gold in order to flood the market and bring down the price. It also
created gold derivatives so investors could trade in
gold without physically buying it.
Now gold has started to rise again, how can the government stop it?
There is only one way that gold can go and that's up!
Even now if all the
gold ever produced on Earth were formed into a single cube its edge
would be less than 20 metres - 2 metres shorter than a tennis court.
Annually mined production grows that cube by about 12 centimetres a
year, and more than each year's production is used up by jewellers
such that now 75% of that cube is fabricated in an art form worth
several times its bullion value. Meanwhile after 15 years of
consistent selling into private demand central bank ownership is now
down to about 20% of the world's gold.
That 20 metre cube of gold would weigh about 140,000 tonnes and each
tonne is worth about 16,000,000 dollars. So all the gold in the
world is currently valued at $2.2 trillion, which compares to a US
public debt of $8 trillion, and an unreserved US generational debt
of $44 trillion. By contrast the US has the biggest gold reserve in
the world which at 8,000 tonnes is worth only $0.12 trillion,
enough, were it all sold, to stop the deficits growing for about 10
weeks.
The utility of gold is simply that it is rare, and for 5,000 years
people have used reliably rare stuff to store value for the future.
Savers are now realising that official money is not
being well managed and cannot in future be relied upon for rarity,
and they believe their governments will soon be forced to create
money in large quantities.
#==============#
M3 is the broadest measure of the money supply and it's
no secret how much money has been created out of thin air the past
10 years.
You will find that one day the Federal Reserve will decided to stop
reporting the M3 money supply figures and probably give no explanation.
When the numbers get bad enough the FED changes the way they figure
them, just like the CPI index was changed a few years back to
exclude certain "volatile items". The FED continues to create
dollars out of thin air and someday they will no longer want you
to see just how much that actually is. Is it really any wonder why
other countries are increasing their gold reserves and why the
prospects for gold have never looked better.
#==============#
Arising from the scale of public debt the forced monetary issue
which is being anticipated by savers is causing them to value the
unimpeachable rarity of gold higher. More and more people no longer
believe that the artificial rarity of bonds, or bank-notes, shares,
or even houses are offering that same assurance of future scarcity,
and until
responsible fiscal and monetary management returns to government the
outlook for gold is likely to remain resolutely positive.
An interesting fact
is that if a bank has physical possession of gold which it owes you
as its creditor, the bank itself is the current 'owner' of the gold.
However, if the gold you deposited at the bank has 'your name' on it
as the owner, then you have what is known as 'allocated gold.'
But if all you have is a deposit slip showing that some ounces of
gold were deposited, then you have, unfortunately, 'unallocated
gold.' Unallocated gold is the most widely traded form of gold in
the world. While this gold remains unallocated to you, the regulator
considers it part of a bank's liquid
reserve. About 99% of gold deposits are in unallocated form, and
therefore all the deposited gold is, is basically in the cellar of
the bank.
This makes unallocated gold an attractive way for the bank to
maintain its regulated liquidity, because you have paid for your
gold, and the bank is free to use your money, while it is also able
to add your unallocated gold holding to its own reserve.
The bank uses your gold as part of its reserves! And the bank's
reserves are the assets that the bank can legally use to offset its
own losses.
That's right, the banks can protect themselves and their owners by
confiscating and selling the assets of the depositors.
So, your unallocated gold could, and would, be sold if the bank were
in need of cash. If the bank went bankrupt and insolvent, then you
would be
put in the line with all the other creditors.
After it's been divided up amongst the shareholders and the secured
creditors etc, etc, you would have what's left.....if anything!
#==============#
For a great read on how Governments have
manipulated wealth and
tried to destroy gold,
please read 'Financial Reckoning Day' by
William Bonner with Addison Wiggin published by Wiley.
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If any course owners would like to know where
to buy Gold coins (lowest commission rate) or
would like to know of a very
good Gold investment certificate program, please
send me an email and I'll send you the relevant
information. Just type 'Gold' in the Subject line.
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